STAT 345 Midterm Project
Noah Crawley
2024-03-29
Team Shot Charts Over Time
General Analysis of Shot Charts By Season
- Common shot locations on the court
- More shots are taken from behind the 3 point line as the years have progressed.
- More 2 point shots are located inside of the paint as the years have progressed.
- Distance of shots taken
- Greater variability in the distance of 3 point shots in the most recent seasons compared to older seasons.
- Total number of shots taken
- The number of shots per season has increased as the years have progressed.
Common Shot Locations on the Court
Trends of shot locations are best summarized through the first and
last seasons shot charts:
+ Looking at 3 point shots, you can see that as time has progressed the
frequency of 3 point shots has increased.
- There is more than double the amount of 3 point shots in 2023 season than the 2004 season, which is a gradual change depicted in the graph.
- Looking at 2 point shots, you can see that as time has progressed
the frequency of shots in the paint but outside of the restricted area
has increased. Which can be visualized in the graph below:
Distance of Shots Taken
Looking at the subset of shot charts above you can see the density of the points along the three point line is different in the graphs. This trend is seen as the years have progressed to the latest season.
- More “deep” 3 point shots are being taken now than before.
- More variability in location along the 3 point line now.
Total Number of Shots Taken
Over the last 20 seasons completed the total number of shots taken by the Miami Heat has increased. This can be visualized through the graph below:
- The average number of shots taken in seasons during 2003-2013 is 6278.4.
- The average number of shots takne in seasons during 2014-2023 is 6667.4.
- This is a 6.1958461% increase in the last 10 seasons when compared to the 10 previous seasons before.
Extension of Shooting Data (4 Point Line)
Location of 4 Point Line
Using Miami Heat team shot data for the last 20 completed seasons:
- Expected value of a 2 point shot is 1.0130304
- Expected value of a 3 point shot is 1.088042
- Average expected value for both shots is 1.0505362
The 4 point line would be added at the distance that results in the 4 point shot expected value to be closest to the average.
- This distance would be 27 as seen in the table below.
| Distance | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| 23 | 1.4305757 |
| 25 | 1.3519133 |
| 26 | 1.2611765 |
| 28 | 0.9140108 |
| 27 | 1.1194210 |
| 29 | 0.6593843 |
| 22 | 1.4423757 |
| 24 | 1.3914212 |
| 32 | 0.2293907 |
| 31 | 0.3086817 |
| 39 | 0.1485149 |
| 38 | 0.1452785 |
| 41 | 0.1383285 |
| 43 | 0.1077441 |
| 33 | 0.2068966 |
| 34 | 0.1955193 |
| 36 | 0.1625282 |
| 30 | 0.4176707 |
| 35 | 0.1921397 |
| 42 | 0.1392405 |
| 40 | 0.1394102 |
| 44 | 0.1155235 |
| 37 | 0.1698113 |
Effect of the 4 Point Shot
- As a team in the most recent season, the Miami Heat scored 7409 points in the 2022-2023 season.
- However, with the addition of the 4 point line, the Miami Heat would
have scored 7553 points in the 2022-2023 season.
- This is an increase of 144 points due to the addition of a 4 point line.